Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
