A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
